Impact of Fair Trade Messaging on Election Results in the 2006 Cycle

Candidates running ads demanding new trade policy — and rejecting the failed NAFTA model — made unprecedented gains over candidates running on a status quo “free trade” platform.

Senate ads:
Debbie Stabenow (Mich.), 1 ad
Sherrod Brown (Ohio), 7 ads
Bob Casey (Pa.), 4 ads
Bernie Sanders (Vt.), 1 ad

House ads:
John Barrow (Ga.), 2 ads
Bruce Braley (Iowa), 1 ad
DCCC for Brad Ellsworth (Ind.), 1 ad
John Yarmuth (Ky.), 1 ad
Ken Lucas (Ky.), 1 ad
Jack Davis (N.Y.), 1 ad
Heath Shuler (N.C.), 2 ads
Zack Space (Ohio), 1 ad
Lois Murphy (Pa.), 1 ad

Trade impact results from the 2006 election:

  • House races where fair traders beat anti-fair trader incumbents: 19
  • Senate races where fair traders beat anti-fair trader incumbents: 6
  • House races where fair traders took open seats vacated by retiring anti-fair traders: 11
  • Senate races where fair traders took open seats vacated by retiring anti-fair traders: 1
  • House races where anti-fair traders replaced fair trade incumbents: 0
  • Senate races where anti-fair traders replaced fair trade incumbents: 0
  • House races where anti-fair traders took open seats vacated by retiring fair traders: 0
  • Senate races where anti-fair traders took open seats vacated by retiring fair traders: 0

Highlights
Senate: Trade was a top and winning issue in campaigns that tilted Senate towards Democratic control:

  • Missouri: Claire McCaskill (D) vs. incumbent Jim Talent (R)
  • Montana: Jon Tester (D) vs. incumbent Conrad Burns (R)
  • Ohio: Sherrod Brown (D) vs. incumbent Mike DeWine (R)
  • Pennsylvania: Bob Casey, Jr. (D) vs. incumbent Rick Santorum (R)
  • Rhode Island: Sheldon Whitehouse (D) vs. incumbent Lincoln Chafee (R)
  • Virginia: Jim Webb (D) vs. incumbent George Allen (R)Plus: Vermont: Bernie Sanders (I) defeats Rich Tarrant (R), taking anti-fair trader Jim Jeffords’ open seat

House Campaigns where trade was a top and winning issue (select examples):

  • California’s 11th: Jerry McNerney (D) vs. incumbent Richard Pombo (R)
  • Connecticut’s 5th: Chris Murphy (D) vs. incumbent Nancy Johnson (R)
  • Georgia’s 8th: Incumbent John Barrow (D) vs. Max Burns (R)
  • Indiana’s 2nd: Joe Donnelly (D) vs. incumbent Chris Chocola (R)
  • Iowa 1st: Bruce Braley (D) vs. Mike Whalen (Nussle open seat)
  • Iowa’s 2nd: Dave Loebsack (D) vs. incumbent Jim Leach (R)
  • Pennsylvania’s 8th: Patrick Murphy (D) vs. incumbent Mike Fitzpatrick (R)
  • Wisconsin’s 8th: Steve Kagen (D) vs. John Gard (R) (Green open seat)

Winning campaigns running paid ads on trade (select examples):

  • Indiana’s 8th: Brad Ellsworth (D) vs. incumbent John Hostettler (R)
  • Kentucky’s 3rd: John Yarmuth (D) vs. incumbent Anne Northup (R)
  • North Carolina’s 11th: Heath Shuler (D) vs. incumbent Charles Taylor (R)
  • Ohio’s 6th: Charlie Wilson (D) vs. Chuck Blasdel (R) (Strickland open seat)
  • Ohio’s 18th: Zack Space (D) vs. Joy Padgett (R) (Ney open seat)
  • The Brown, Casey, Sanders and Debbie Stabenow (Michigan incumbent) Senate campaigns
  • The Barrow and Braley House campaigns, and at least three others