Trade and the 2008 Election

Trade and Elections

At least eighty-eight new fair trade challenger candidates were elected during the past two election cycles. In sixty-nine of those races, incumbents supporting past unfair “free trade” agreements either retired or were replaced by candidates running on a platform of fair trade reform.

Seventy-five of eighty candidates endorsed by CTC PAC won their races in 2008, including sixty-five incumbents from both political parties who opposed the Peru Free Trade Agreement and cosponsored the TRADE Act. In addition, ten challengers picked up seats formerly held by anti-fair trade incumbents from New York to Oregon, and from North Carolina to New Mexico. In 2006, thirty-seven fair traders beat anti-fair trade incumbents, or took their open seats, in House and Senate races.

For analysis on trade in this election, and to see the ads discussed below you can check out the GTW database of 137 paid trade television ads run by candidates for office in the 2008 election cycle or see their report, Fair Trade Gets an Upgrade (PDF).

“It’s hard to find an issue where the votes have shifted so much, so fast, as on the trade issue” said Yvette Pena Lopes, trade expert with the International Brotherhood of Teamsters. “Voters spoke loud and clear at the ballot box, on two consecutive elections, and they want trade reform.”

For years, polling data has shown that NAFTA-style trade policies are opposed by a majority of voters across all demographics. This was especially true in battleground states, and among the swing voters that will determine the election outcomes.

These powerful polling results translated into a deluge of television ads on trade in 2008. In these paid spots, candidates promised to “oppose job killing trade deals like NAFTA and CAFTA, which cost our state jobs.” Challengers also reminded voters when their opponent “sided with George Bush on trade policies to move our jobs overseas” and if he “cast the deciding vote on CAFTA”.

In July of 2005, two hundred and fifteen congressional members voted against the Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA), which passed by only two votes. If any one supporter of CAFTA would have switched a vote, the result would have resulted in a tie, and the agreement would not have passed.

“Winning candidates nationwide tapped into the widespread popular discontent voters have with past failed trade policies,” said Eric Dirnbach, trade policy specialist with UNITE HERE. “Members who voted for job killing trade deals found out their jobs were in jeopardy as well.”

Questions for 2008 Congressional Candidates The Trade Issue in the 2008 Elections | Tracking Campaign Ads

Mood Shift Against Free Trade Puts Republicans on Defensive Wall Street Journal
Dems’ Ads In Tight Races Tap Into Anti-Trade Sentiment National Journal Congress Daily
Democrats campaign to keep jobs at home Reuters
Trade Reform Message Dominates Campaign Ads … Common Dreams
Trade Takes Center Stage in Campaign Ads Global Trade Watch — Eyes on Trade
Free Trade Agreements Could Ship Wisconsin Jobs Overseas WKBT, WI – November 3, 2008
FREE TRADE IS A TOUGH SELL Shipping Digest, New Jersey – Nov 2, 2008
Analysis: Free trade in trouble The Journal of Commerce Online, NJ – Oct 29, 2008